Bitcoin Market Cycles
Four-year cycle tied to halving — accumulation, bull, distribution, bear.
Bitcoin follows relatively predictable ~4-year cycles, structured around halving events that reduce new supply by 50%.
Cycle phases:
1. Accumulation (post-bear bottom) • Little media coverage • Price stagnates for months • Smart money quietly accumulates • Duration: 6-12 months
2. Early bull (post-halving) • Halving reduces supply pressure • Institutional interest grows • Media starts talking about crypto • Duration: 6-12 months
3. Late bull (euphoria) • Mainstream media coverage • "Bitcoin will be $X" predictions everywhere • Retail FOMO buying • Rapid altseason • Duration: 3-6 months
4. Distribution (peak) • Smart money sells into FOMO • Extreme volatility • Every drop is "dip to buy"
5. Bear market • 70-85% drop from ATH • Media: "crypto is dead" • Speculative projects fail • Duration: 12-18 months
Halving and ATH history:
Note: Cycles don't repeat identically — institutions and ETFs change dynamics.