Crypto Market Cycles
Repeating patterns of market phases — accumulation, markup, distribution, markdown.
The crypto market goes through repeating cycles best described through the Wyckoff market cycle model.
Cycle phases:
1. Accumulation • Price is low, volatility small • "Smart money" (institutions, whales) quietly buying • Public thinks crypto is "dying" • Lasts months or years (bear market bottom)
2. Markup • Price begins rising • Retail investors notice and start buying • FOMO spreads • Bull market phase
3. Distribution • Institutions and early buyers selling • Price is high but growth slowing • Media is euphoric — "this time it's different" • Gradual top forms
4. Markdown • Price starts falling • Retail "HODLs" hoping for recovery • Bear market — 70-90% fall from ATH
Bitcoin halving cycle:
Wyckoff on crypto: Identical patterns visible on BTC in every cycle.