Stock-to-Flow Model
BTC valuation model based on scarcity — ratio of total supply to annual production.
Stock-to-Flow (S2F) is a Bitcoin valuation model claiming price is determined by scarcity, measured as the ratio of existing supply to annual production.
Formula:
•S2F = Stock (total circulating supply) / Flow (annual production)
•Bitcoin S2F after 2024 halving: ~120
•Gold S2F: ~60 (BTC twice as "rare")
PlanB model:
•Model popularized by anonymous analyst @100trillionUSD (PlanB)
•Log-linear relationship: S2F vs Market Cap
•Each halving doubles S2F → predicts geometric growth
S2F Cross-Asset (S2FX):
•Extended model — BTC phases as: proof of concept, payment, gold, fin. asset
•Target price for "fin. asset" phase: $1M+
Criticisms:
•Ignores demand side (supply only)
•Can't explain 2022 crash despite high S2F
•Circular reasoning — correlation ≠ causation
•December 2021: predicted $100k+, BTC ended at $69k
Should be used together with:
•MVRV, SOPR, realized cap
•Macroeconomic factors
•Sentiment indicators