Market Bottom
Identifying crypto bear market bottom — on-chain signals and historical indicators.
Market bottom is the lowest point of a bear market — difficult to identify in real time, but with strong retroactive signals.
On-chain bottom signals:
1. Realized Price • When spot price falls below Bitcoin Realized Price (average price of all BTC) • Historically: every BTC below Realized Price was an entry to profitability
2. MVRV ratio < 1 • Market Value / Realized Value • MVRV < 1 = more than 50% of holders in loss
3. Capitulation • Panic mass selling — high volume + extreme Fear index • "Blood in the streets" — popular phrase
4. Exchange Netflow • Cryptocurrencies leaving exchanges (users withdrawing to wallet) = HODL sentiment
5. BTC below 200 WMA (Weekly Moving Average) • BTC has only been below 200 WMA in bear bottom periods
Historical bottoms:
Don't catch "falling knife":