What is a bull market?
A bull market is a period when prices are generally rising, sentiment is positive and investors are optimistic. In crypto, it's characterized by: Bitcoin reaching or breaking its ATH (All-Time High), altcoins outperforming BTC, positive media coverage, new participants entering the market, volume rising.
What is a bear market?
A bear market is a period of 70-90% price decline from ATH, pessimism and "crypto is dead" narratives. It lasts a long time — typically 12-18 months. But — it's also the period when experienced investors accumulate at low prices.
Bitcoin halving cycles
Historically, the BTC halving (halving of mining rewards every ~4 years) is the primary driver of bull markets. The logic: the supply of new BTC is cut in half, demand stays the same or grows → price rises.
- 2012 halving → Bull 2013 (BTC: $12 → $1,200)
- 2016 halving → Bull 2017 (BTC: $650 → $20,000)
- 2020 halving → Bull 2021 (BTC: $8,800 → $69,000)
- 2024 halving (April) → Bull 2024-2025 (ongoing)
Market cycle phases
- Accumulation — bear market bottom, low prices, little media attention
- Markup (Bull) — prices rise, sentiment improves, new investors enter
- Distribution — ATH zone, smart money sells to new investors buying at the top
- Markdown (Bear) — decline, panic selling, "crypto is dead"
Strategy by phase
- Bear market — DCA accumulation of BTC and ETH
- Early bull — increase exposure, add quality altcoins (Layer 1)
- Late bull / ATH zone — take profits partially (25-50% of position)
- Distribution — reduce exposure, park in stablecoins, wait for the next cycle